Valuing Gold Circuit and Taiwan Union, Origin-Washing Doubts, and a Stock-Switching, Profit-Taking Discipline
TL;DR: The speaker's personal view: on next year's EPS of 70–80, Gold Circuit (金像電) at around 1000 is only about 12x earnings; he sees Taiwan Union (台燿) below 1400 as cheap and finds origin-washing doubts hard to credit; in trading he stresses willingness to switch stocks and keep to profit-taking discipline, and says he cannot be responsible for others.
Key ideas
- The speaker thinks Gold Circuit, on next year's EPS of 70–80, is only at 12x near 1000, with gross margin recovering to 38% and institutions fully on board; 80 times 20x is 1600, the first resistance is at 1200–1300, and 1100–1000 is all cheap.
- Taiwan Union's pricing bottom is close to succeeding and its chart looks much like Gold Circuit's; if investment trusts and margin traders stop selling it can be bought on dips, and he thinks anything below 1400 is cheap; the origin-washing story is hard to accept, because if origins could really be washed, big manufacturers would not spend huge sums buying land and building plants in Southeast Asia, and Trump would certainly keep hitting the red supply chain.
- Trading requires letting go: Taiwan's turnover is only about 9000 億, not enough to surge every day as in April and May, and only a few stocks are rising, so you cannot hold on stubbornly; the speaker swapped GlobalWafers into Taiwan Silicon (台勝科), leaving at 20%–30% profit per stock and using stock switching to recoup the losses from the crash.
- Profit-taking needs a clear chart basis: for example, Taiwan Silicon has broken its 5-day line, and 2 more black candlesticks could prompt profit-taking; with the limit-up radar, the point is whether money stays in the same sector for 3 days, which shows it is willing to stay longer.
- The market's cash level depends on the OTC market: if OTC fails to hold its low, keep the current level; only if it returns above the middle of its recent high range, the Taiwan dollar does not depreciate much, and turnover and foreign investors turn positive is the level raised to 85%; if Unimicron can make a new high, it means money still believes in PCB.
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Section summaries
2:00Gold Circuit's Chart and Valuation
Gold Circuit's chart is actually not pretty; yesterday the strongest PCB names were the 3 ABF stocks, while Gold Circuit opened high and moved lower. The speaker expects next year's EPS of 70–80, so near 1000 it is only 12x, not expensive; gross margin has recovered to 38% and institutions are fully on board. 80 times 20x is 1600, the previous high is also near 1600, and the first resistance is at 1200–1300; 1100–1000 is all cheap. He also stresses switching stocks, for example swapping GlobalWafers into Taiwan Silicon.
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7:25Taiwan Union's Bottoming and the Origin-Washing Question
Taiwan Union's pricing bottom is close to succeeding and its chart resembles Gold Circuit's; the difference is that investment trusts are still selling and margin traders are also reducing. Once this selling stops it can be bought on dips, and Taiwan Union below 1400 is all cheap (current price 1460). Reasoning from first principles, the speaker thinks origin-washing is hard to accept: if it really worked, why would big manufacturers spend huge sums buying land and building plants in Southeast Asia; Trump will certainly keep hitting the red supply chain, and it is worth watching if any PCB makers begin to move back.
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9:40Co-Tech, Zhen Ding, and Silicon Wafer Updates
After entering disposition status, Co-Tech (金居) has a chance to go higher, and the speaker thinks there is no need to worry; Jiandian (尖點) has entered disposition again. Zhen Ding's ECB is priced at 550, above the current price of 476; he sees the company as hurrying to raise money to do what it needs to do, and if ABF keeps rising it will lift Zhen Ding. On silicon wafers, Taiwan Silicon has broken its 5-day line and 2 more black candlesticks could prompt profit-taking; today it should at least get back above the 10-day line. GlobalWafers has retail investors steadily buying and is heavier on autos, with major players moving the smaller-cap Taiwan Silicon first. For Wafer Works (合晶), just let it digest here; he also suggests screening low-end silicon wafers and passive components.
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13:15Letting Go and the Strong Chip-Packaging Stocks
He stresses letting go: everyone now says fundamentals are good, but the market is not buying, so the key is judging where money is flowing; Taiwan's turnover is only about 9000 億 and cannot surge every day as in April and May, and when you open the screen only a few stocks are red, so you should stay with the strong and be willing to switch stocks and take profits. On packaging and testing, ChipMOS (南茂) at first seemed unable to catch up with Chipbond (頎邦), but like Elite Material (聯茂) back then it could come from behind; fundamentals are strong in 2Q26, memory remains strong, capex is up sharply and it is entering optical communications packaging. Today it closed with a long upper shadow; if you hold it, at least sell part first, exit entirely if a low-volume black candlestick comes down, or wait until it gets above 100 to take profit.
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17:45Profit-Taking Discipline and Institutional Flows
Profit-taking needs discipline: Chipbond has risen too fiercely, and if it still cannot hold up over these 2–3 days and its 5-day line breaks again, the speaker will throw a tantrum; when it is time to exit, you have to exit. He observed fewer retail investors and big holders continuing to buy, yet it suddenly could not rise, which made him suspicious; he joked that the various institutions are opponents in the ecosystem, even investment trusts trade against each other and are not united. Greatek (矽格) closed with an acceptable lower shadow and heavy volume; Xintec's (精材) 10-day line will turn up after flattening for 1 day, and he wants to add when it returns to that level, using the daily and monthly lines as defense points.
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23:45Solar Power and the Limit-Up Radar Scan
Mosel Vitelic's (茂矽) revenue is starting to improve, lifted by news of rising silicon wafer and solar cell prices, with the stock in the 40s; if you want to chase it, do so with quick in-and-out trades. Shuohe (碩禾) had its first red candlestick yesterday and a second today, worth watching; there are also auto-parts names Dewei (德微) and Qiangmao (強茂), and Quanxin (全新), whose alternating red and black candlesticks washed out nicely and which today ate through on high volume, with a chance in the 85–100 platform. Power and electromechanical engineering themes are also moving. The purpose of the limit-up radar is to see whether money persists: if money is willing to stay in the same sector for 3 days, the sector may keep rising.
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27:00Low-Priced Stock Risks and Chenbro Analysis
Low-priced stocks with small volume often surge and crash, for example one that hit limit-up yesterday and limit-down today, which the speaker does not like to play; Tianliang (天良) already has bearishly aligned moving averages; he would be interested in Canghe (倉和) if it pulled back more; a broker branch is selling Gaoli (高力), so he thinks it will not keep rising; Hsinchuan (欣銓) has pulled back 2 candlesticks to its previous platform, an entry point to bet on a rebound. Chenbro (勤誠) has been asked about many times; investment trusts have kept selling since July and August, and there are still over 1000 lots going out, not necessarily finished; the speaker's advice is either to switch stocks or wait for it to suddenly print a red candlestick, and if it surges for 2 candlesticks after you switch, accept it as luck.
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31:35Institutional Flows and the Top Turnover Names
One institution is adding to Taiwan Union at the same time, which the speaker takes as showing they also find it cheap; one institution keeps selling Hsinchuan, with its holding down to just 0.17%, so once it finishes selling the impact will shrink; Bizlink (貿聯) can still rise despite selling, and he thinks it is worth 3000. Turnover leader AUO traded 94 萬 lots (萬 being ten thousand); yesterday 100 萬 lots were bought to limit-up and today 80 萬 lots were dumped, so the speaker wants at least 2 days of pullback and consolidation before buying; Innolux is already in a position to buy on dips; Wafer Works and WIN Semiconductors (穩懋) have again entered the top turnover ranks, and spending big money in a trapped-holder zone must be suspicious, as they want to force their way past that candlestick.
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37:30Estimated Intraday Volume and Closing Trading Principles
He teaches how to read estimated intraday volume: if the estimate opens at 5 萬 lots (萬 being ten thousand), it means someone at the first auction is willing to pay any price to push through the trapped-holder zone, hoping to attract day traders and next-day traders to follow; but against a heavily trapped selling zone, the speaker would still rather not gamble. On cash level, if OTC fails to hold yesterday's low, keep the current level; if OTC returns above the middle of its recent high range, prints real-bodied candlesticks instead of opening high and closing lower every day, and the Taiwan dollar does not depreciate much intraday while turnover and foreign net buying are positive, then raise the level to 85%. Finally, watch whether the ABF group can make new highs: Unimicron looks set to make a new high, and if it can do so despite such big bad news, it means money believes in PCB.
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