CCL Revival and ITEQ's Limit-Up Lift PCB Stocks Toward Prior Highs: Stock Switching and Profit-Taking Near Prior Highs
TL;DR: CCL and PCB stocks are reviving after ITEQ hit limit-up, but until the broad market and the OTC market both break their prior highs together, the speaker believes selling individual stocks near their prior highs is right, so he relies on small stop-losses, stock switching and profit-taking discipline.
Key ideas
- ITEQ is the strongest-growing CCL name this year, with August profit up 852% year on year and self-reported monthly EPS of 2.54 yuan, locked at one price of 595 yuan against a prior high of 599 yuan; TUC has stronger growth next year and the year after. If he had to choose, he says, pick Elite Material or TUC to wait for a cheap entry, or ITEQ to wait on the chart pattern.
- Many stocks recently fell below the monthly moving average and then rebounded, so he keeps holding periods short and stop-losses small; if stops are wide, members refuse to stop out and have no cash when it is time to switch. Skilled traders switch, moving from large caps to small caps as much as possible, earning 15–20% per stock to slowly win back what was lost.
- The bottom-type one-stroke setup is a long red candle after a black candle squeeze: after chasing in, stop out if the price breaks the monthly average. The win rate beats the loss rate, and each winner earns a lot, so it works over the long run.
- Both selling and buying are guided by prior highs and volume: the speaker plans to buy UMC only below 150 yuan and AUO only around 31 to 32 yuan, sell half of ChipMOS near its prior high, and prefers TSMC breaking highs around its Q4 earnings call; until the broad market and OTC break prior highs together, selling near prior highs is right.
- Direction changes over the long holiday cannot be predicted and need not be considered; the key is controlling cash level. Statistics show about 70% odds of a rise in the week after Mid-Autumn Festival and 70–80% odds of a rise in October; if most stocks gradually climb above the quarterly average, the TSMC earnings call may lift sentiment. In a big drop, don't panic, because a new high always follows a big drop.
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Section summaries
0:05Opening: CCL Revival and PCB Sector Outlook
Preview of today's focus: whether ITEQ's limit-up can lead the PCB sector to break prior highs together; whether ABF will return to glory after Kinsus's big rally, and if it rises again next week, Kinsus could become the 3rd ABF stock to reach the thousand-yuan club; plus viewers asking where to sell AUO and UMC, and the pattern of stocks such as Gold Circuit Electronics not following through after limit-up. Next he will go through Kinsus, Nan Ya Plastics, Fu Chiao, Zhen Ding Tech and other stocks one by one, and answer viewer questions.
▶ Watch from here1:15ITEQ's Limit-Up and the Chance of a Gap Above the Prior High
Explains why he picks ITEQ over TUC: it is the strongest-growing CCL name this year, with August profit up 852% year on year and self-reported monthly EPS of 2.54 yuan. Today's limit-up price is 595 yuan against a prior high of 599 yuan; this locked-at-one-price pattern could gap above the prior high next week, leading other CCL and PCB stocks through together.
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2:35TUC's Value and Stock-Picking Strategy
TUC was cheap at 1200-plus and 1300 yuan, and on forward P/E even 1500 yuan is still cheap. ITEQ pulled back first on the PCB origin-washing issue and then on CCL spec downgrades, but it is the lower-end CCL maker, so downgrades actually favor it; both investment trusts and foreign investors like it, and its moving averages are in bullish alignment. To wait for a cheap entry choose Elite Material or TUC, and to wait on the chart pattern choose ITEQ; money may move out of Alchip and MediaTek into optics or PCB stocks.
▶ Watch from here4:25Small Stop-Losses and Switching Discipline
Many stocks fall below the monthly average and then bounce back, which makes selling infuriating, and this can still happen again, so he keeps holding periods short and stop-losses small; if stops are wide, members refuse to stop out and have no cash when it is time to switch. Members who listened and switched did well when the index returned above 47000 points.
▶ Watch from here5:10ABF Sector and Positioning in UMC
Kinsus's August self-reported profit of 1.59 yuan lifted Zhen Ding Tech by 0.53%; Boss Lei admits Zhen Ding has underperformed within the ABF group but still thinks it will eventually be lifted. After the ABF substrate origin-washing dispute, Unimicron has already broken its high; liking Zhen Ding is fine, but he suggests putting some money into Kinsus, Unimicron and Nan Ya PCB, these 3 names, and long-term holders need not worry about prior-high pressure. UMC's target price this year is 160 yuan, foreign investors and margin traders have turned to selling, and the speaker plans to buy conservatively only below 150 yuan.
▶ Watch from here7:45AUO Entry Point and TSMC Timing
Investment trust buying in AUO has vanished, foreign investors turned to selling about 15 wan lots, and margin traders bought only about 3 wan lots, so there is no volume to push it up and a short-term rebound is unlikely; he suggests buying around 31 to 32 yuan. TSMC should wait to break highs around its Q4 earnings call, which looks better, and he repeats the approach of switching stocks and earning 15–20% per stock to slowly win back losses.
▶ Watch from here10:00Switching Logic and Small/Mid-Cap Rotation
Skilled traders know how to switch and don't dwell on past holdings. On today's limit-up/limit-down radar, Episil was the strongest this wave and has broken its high on its own; whether it can lift Wafer Works and Sino-American Silicon is the thing to watch. The switching logic is to move from large caps to small caps as much as possible, because large caps that were going to rise have mostly already risen. He also cites stocks like Andes Technology and Teng Hui Electronics that broke highs or started rising from a bottom, a "tomb raider" pattern; after they pass the quarterly average, you can test with a small position defending the low of the long red candle.
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11:20PCB Relay and the Tomb Raider Tactic
PCB stocks are breaking highs one after another, so there is no need to worry too much. Shih Shuo Industrial (4566) has consolidated for a long time and it is uncertain whether it can break the high in one go, but if it rises near 100 yuan, Boss Lei will sell a round first. Another stock says it has entered the CPU supply chain, and related material revenue could grow several-fold in the second half, though its revenue share is small. This is the "tomb raider" one-stroke setup: a long red candle after a black candle squeeze, and after chasing in, stop out if a black candle breaks the monthly average; Boss Lei thinks the win rate beats the loss rate, and with large gains per stock it works over the long run.
▶ Watch from here13:20Stock Warnings and a Cautious Mood in High-Priced Stocks
Low-priced Ju Hung hit limit-down; for stocks with broken charts like this he advises giving up decisively and switching whenever possible. Hon Jing (7769) has fallen to a level that now seems sweet, and just stopping the decline would be good, with a chance to break the 8000 yuan high again; but if a high-priced stock hits limit-down, leave if the next day shows any red intraday. Xintec has not broken its monthly average so he is not very worried, and Boss Lei is betting on TSMC's semiconductor equipment earnings call; Dynamo and Yao Citian only began buying packaging and testing stocks last week and began selling packaging leader ASE this week, and Boss Lei suggests Xintec's decline may be related, but stresses not to presume too many positions.
▶ Watch from here16:10Limit-Up Radar and Gold Circuit's Price and Volume
Volume appearing in Gold Circuit Electronics is good but not yet explosive; if volume rolls over in the next day or two and it eats through the trapped zone from June to August, view it positively. It hit limit-up yesterday and fell 3% today; recent limit-up stocks have shown low follow-through, but it is still oscillating within its range, the five-day and other moving averages are unbroken, and margin traders and investment trusts have bought in, so there is no need to worry too much.
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18:50ChipMOS Profit-Taking Plan Near the Prior High
Looking back at large-holder net-buy picks, Wafer Works and ChipMOS. He already warned yesterday not to sell ChipMOS yet; an upper shadow during an uptrend usually still leaves room, but today it is near the prior high, volume has not rolled over, and it must absorb the trapped zone around 120 yuan. He plans to sell half near the prior high, or leave first if it does not open higher tomorrow, conservatively allowing one or two black candles.
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19:45Wafer Works Margin Trading and Panel Stock Review
Wafer Works is still below the quarterly average; stocks that rose strongly in the first half like this will sooner or later bounce back, and it makes sense only if it at least retakes its prior high; the push must come from margin traders rather than foreign investors, and he will keep watching margin changes. The Taiwan dollar depreciated that day. The stories around Innolux and AUO are somewhat exaggerated and how much EPS they contribute is in question; he is bullish long term but short term is trade-as-it-happens. Kinsus's trading value returned to first place, which is indicative; MediaTek and Alchip are still rising, but he maintains moderate profit-taking, and UMC's profit-taking looked decent. Delta Electronics is fine if it holds around 1875–2000 yuan with a neat daily consolidation; TUC is good anywhere below 1400 yuan.
▶ Watch from here24:05Market View and Mid-Autumn Statistics
Until the broad market and OTC break prior highs together, selling stocks near their prior highs is right, and it doesn't matter if they keep rising after you sell. The Taiwan dollar depreciated again recently, so be careful: sell one for each one bought to hold or slightly lower the cash level. Whether the market turns over the holiday cannot be predicted and need not be considered; if it breaks stop-loss lines after Mid-Autumn he will cut positions, and if the broad market and OTC strengthen together on volume he will add. Statistics show about 70% odds of a rise in the week after Mid-Autumn Festival and 70–80% odds of a rise in October, and the TSMC earnings call may lift sentiment. He also reminds viewers to watch Co-Tech (8358) coming out of its restriction next Tuesday.
▶ Watch from here27:35Profit Settlement and Closing
Congratulations to members holding ITEQ; stocks positioned in early September have recently been taken for profit, including eMemory, Gold Circuit Electronics and Da Liang, with Da Liang sold at a higher level in the previous wave and bought back later. He stresses switching when it is time to switch and stopping out when it is time to stop out; he stops out too, not every pick has a high win rate, it is just that more have recently been closed at a profit. He also reminds retail investors not to panic in a big drop, since a big drop is a chance to turn things around and a new high always follows a big drop, so learn to switch stocks.
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