PCB Stocks Plunge: Rumored Order Cuts at Taiwan Union Technology, Foreign Selling, and Indicators for Bottom-Fishing
TL;DR: When PCB stocks plunge, fundamentals are hard to judge, so the speaker lowers his cash level first and waits for the Taiwan dollar to rise, Japanese PCB stocks to retake prior highs, and Japan and Korea to stop falling before buying the range rather than the bottom, because part of this selloff comes from loosened chip positioning and foreign investors withdrawing money.
Key ideas
- Taiwan Union Technology is rumored to have had its M9 orders cut by Amazon, but the speaker says nobody can say for sure whether orders were cut, since a failed certification gets described as an order cut; Elite Material, in the same supply chain, also fell 6%, and ITEQ failed to rally after opening high. PCB stocks were dumped after opening high and closed in solid black candlesticks, which is partly not a fundamentals problem but loosened chip positioning.
- Cash-level strategy is the backbone of this episode: he cut his level from 80-something % to 40-something %. Claims such as Korea spending 650 hundred million US dollars to back Samsung substrates are unreasonable, and when fundamentals are distorted all you can do is lower your level; at a low level you can hold stocks and wait for a rebound, while at a high level you should leave once a stock hits cost or the stop-loss.
- Bottom-fishing relies only on objective signals: a rising Taiwan dollar, Japanese PCB leaders Ibiden and Nittobo retaking the Oct 22 black-candlestick high, funds returning to Japanese and Korean PCB and memory stocks, and oil stabilizing. In a bull market you profit from the recovery, and those who try to catch the very bottom often cannot buy back in, so he buys the range and keeps a position in hand as a ticket.
- Foreign investors have withdrawn more than 2 trillion from Taiwan this year; if they are willing to bring money back and pour it into PCB stocks worldwide, Taiwan's turn will come sooner or later, so watch whether international money is lifting Japanese PCB stocks rather than scaring yourself; the broad market needs to close above last Thursday's high before heavyweights like Delta Electronics have a chance.
- Individual stock trading takes discipline: he took profit on UMC around 160 and left once the 168.5 target was reached; 110-something to 120 is where he often buys. PCB rebounds were pushed down on touching the 5-day, 10-day and monthly moving averages, so don't move before the broad market does.
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Section summaries
0:55PCB Rhyme and the Taiwan Union Technology Order-Cut Doubts
He goes through 8 PCB-related stocks one by one in a rhyme: the Co-Tech chairman says Q4 is better than Q3, Unimicron faces an upstream material shortfall as high as 20%, Taiwan Union Technology's M9 is rumored to have been cut by Amazon, and ITEQ has more orders than it can handle. Company-side comments were mostly positive, but Taiwan Union Technology only said it would advance new-material development and existing capacity in parallel, saying little else, yet the market was all green, with only Nanya Technology closing up. Nan Ya also had rumors of poor certification at the same time, but Nan Ya clarified right away so it fell less, while Taiwan Union Technology hit limit-down, the biggest gap.
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6:35Support Broken and the Taiwan Dollar
Taiwan Union Technology fell to key support intraday, and its limit-down was opened several times but could not be locked firmly. PCB stocks were dumped as soon as they opened high, and stocks that opened near limit-up all closed as solid black candlesticks; he thinks that for PCB here, part of it is not a fundamentals problem but loosened chip positioning. They cut the cash level from 80-something % to 70-something %, then quickly to lower, and he stressed that the broad market is hard to turn around unless the Taiwan dollar appreciates; late in the session the Taiwan dollar turned stronger.
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9:35Foreign Selling and Lowering the Cash Level
Foreign investors have withdrawn more than 2 trillion from Taiwan this year, and even peers cannot say clearly what they are selling; during the 2 extra days Taiwan's market was closed, Japanese and Korean PCB stocks caught up on declines, so Taiwan's early high open got punished. He questions whether Korea spending 650 hundred million US dollars to back Samsung substrates is reasonable, since equipment lead times often run 12 months to 30 months and a new plant cannot be supplying AI tomorrow. Because the fundamentals are distorted, the only option is to lower the cash level, and he cut his to 40-something %. Also, if Taiwan Union Technology had really lost orders, Elite Material should not have fallen 6% along with it and ITEQ should not have failed to rise, which means someone wants out, not simply an order cut.
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17:45Bottom-Fishing Signals and Objective Indicators
Before buying PCB, check: Japanese PCB leaders Ibiden and Nittobo retaking the Oct 22 black-candlestick high, the broad market closing above last Thursday's high, the Taiwan dollar rising, and oil prices stabilizing; Japan and Korea already show signs of stopping their fall and Bitcoin is still high, so if Taiwan catches up in the next day or two you can buy. The point is to buy the range rather than the bottom, because in a bull market what you want to profit from is the recovery, and those who buy the very low often cannot buy back in. He does not judge by ceasefire or nuclear themes, only these objective indicators, and keeps a position in hand as a ticket.
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28:55Market Callouts and a Quiet Chip Picture
He calls out stocks on the odd-lot limit-up/limit-down and turnover rankings, including Bin Chuan, Eastern Taiwan, Mirle, Eastern Jie Information, Lanner, Hiwin Mikrosystem and Lotes, with the robotics group looking slightly stronger. For Lien-I Light he can find no bad news and judges that chips are messy at the high: investment trusts have not entered at all, big holders at just over 4000 lots are very few, and foreigners are not selling much. After an upper shadow with volume at a high, another often follows; if it rebounds it will be pressed by the 10-day line, and the next support is near the quarterly line at 155.
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31:55Delta Electronics and Conditions for a Heavyweight Reversal
Warrant net buying is only around 300 ten-thousand; the top by turnover are Jinshan Electronics, Ardentec, Unimicron, Delta Electronics, Gold Circuit Electronics and Nanya Technology, and he thinks apart from Nanya Technology the rest look more like bottom-fishing. Delta Electronics has fallen to around 1500, and he says he last sold at 1900-something; foreigners keep selling, but investment trusts keep buying and margin balances have not retreated. The broad market must close above last Thursday's high for heavyweights to have a chance of rising; if it stabilizes here, it may be the range low, and he needs to watch for about 1 week more.
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35:35Holding Discipline and Watching Foreign Investors
He sold Nan Ya around 310; some of his PCB holdings are at cost and some have fallen below cost, but because his cash level is low he chose to hold and swap stocks after a rebound. At a low level you can be a bit tolerant, while at a high level you should leave when a stock hits cost or the stop-loss; unless he is sure the broad market will crash, there is no need to sell everything when the level is down to 40-something %. He also offered his own small conspiracy theory: over the weekend a certain company's bond was said to yield as much as 15%, so wealthy people pulled Asian money to lend to big AI companies, which is why Asian stock markets were sold, but he is not sure it is true. Today foreigners actually sold only about 80 hundred million, so Taiwanese were scaring themselves.
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42:35UMC Trading and Target-Price Discipline
He recalls taking profit on UMC around 160: an upper shadow appeared, the next day closed black, the 168.5 target price was reached, and if something looks wrong he steps aside rather than stubbornly fighting. After the pullback, 110-something to 120 is where he often buys; if a small candlestick stabilizes, those willing to hold into next year can try a little, making sure they dare to buy when it retakes the quarterly line. The stock has now reached 122.5, and he thinks the odds are relatively good here and the reward-to-risk ratio is acceptable, but admits he may not be right.
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46:25Compeq's Low-Orbit Satellite Theme Falls Through
Compeq has long held 9th place in intraday odd-lot turnover, and its antennas have been made into low-orbit satellite products, yet the stock is still in the low bottom-right corner. The host jokes that he has given Compeq many chances and waited through several peaks; this time he thought the candlestick he waited for was confirmed, but it fell through, and he even joked about the Golden Bell Awards and Musk. He says he has already exited, was driven crazy by Compeq, and in the end consoled himself with the saying that a good bird chooses its tree, choosing to stand aside.
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51:30Chip Tracking and Tomorrow's Focus
Reading the holding changes of the active Uni-President ETF: someone appears to be picking up stocks but is actually adding 540-something lots of ASE Technology Holding; Power Brother added Unimicron and AVC. The broad market has cooled to the extreme, and no stocks entered disposition today; tomorrow is the key day to watch, to see how stocks that rallied sharply earlier and come out of disposition tomorrow, such as Browave and Dajia, perform, and if they do too poorly, it means money has not flowed back.
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53:45Nan Ya PCB and Unimicron Technical Wrap-Up
Nan Ya PCB (8046) was pushed down when it rebounded to the 5-day and 10-day lines, and the monthly line also formed overhead resistance; Unimicron (3037) is in the same position, and 3189 is relatively better but likewise cannot get above. This shows that recently PCB chip holders want you to be steady: don't move before the broad market does.
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