Mid-Autumn Turning-Point Talk, Where MediaTek's Pullback May Stop, and How Much to Trim the Index Position
TL;DR: The Mid-Autumn turning-point theory does not hold up statistically, and MediaTek's pullback after a big run is a reasonable pause that need not reach the quarterly moving average; but with the index below its 5-day moving average, the speaker says those heavily invested can trim 5% first, because selling pressure is heavy near the prior high and OTC turnover is insufficient.
Key ideas
- The Taiwan market is jittery near its prior high, but the speaker thinks most worries are the market hyping itself up: Taishin Securities Investment Advisory statistics show the market usually rises 73% of the time over the next 1 day and 67% over the next 5 days; a rate hike is a short-term negative but long-term positive that is only done when the economy is strong enough, and oil prices and US Treasury yields are not big problems.
- The rumor of MediaTek's TPU delay is a real issue, but the timeline was always next year; the stock rose from 3000 to a high of 5500, a gain of more than 70–80%, so a rest is reasonable and a retest near the monthly moving average is enough, since if TSMC or Largan takes over the rally, it doesn't need to fall that much.
- The speaker prefers buying dips to chasing highs: AUO's large holders increased holdings by nearly 6% while retail holders decreased, but volume is insufficient and speculative sentiment has cooled, so he buys quietly on dips; Systex's investor conference on October 7 drives the BBU theme, and whether small stocks like Shunda can break away from their moving averages depends on what it lifts.
- On capital flows, silicon wafers, like passive components, should be approached through small-cap stocks whose holdings have already been cleaned out, with Episil the strongest this round; ABF still has potential, but stocks chased near the prior high are easily trapped, so he does not recommend chasing.
- Index cash level: with the index below its 5-day moving average, those heavily invested can trim 5% first and bring their invested level below 85%; if the market dips slightly again tomorrow or touches the 10-day moving average, they can cut another 5%–7.5%; OTC turnover shrank to 1680 hundred million today, and breaking the prior high requires heavy volume of more than 2500 hundred million.
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Section summaries
0:05Panic Near the Prior High and Market Conditions
With the Taiwan market near its prior high above the 4 ten-thousand-point level, any bit of bad news causes panic, and a drop in MediaTek's pre-market futures set off worries. The speaker points out that TSMC has not yet led the rally, yet the P/E ratios of MediaTek, Global Unichip and Largan have already been pushed up; the Fed only dares to hike rates when the economy is very good, and suppressing expectations in the short term is short-term negative but long-term positive; if it hikes 2–3 notches this year it will hardly hike again, and next year will in fact be a good year. Oil prices and US Treasury yields are high but neither is a big problem, and the speaker thinks MediaTek's decline is mostly a false issue from the market getting carried away.
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6:15Testing the Mid-Autumn Turning-Point Theory
Citing statistics compiled by Taishin Securities Investment Advisory: the market usually rises 73% of the time over the next 1 day and 67% over the next 5 days, is about half and half over the next 1 month, and has a high probability of gaining 1% over the next 1 week. On this basis the speaker thinks Mid-Autumn is unlikely to be a turning point, and that everyone keeps calling a turning point only because they have gotten carried away.
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6:45Analyzing the MediaTek Order-Loss Issue
The market hears that Broadcom leads Google's TPU and, ignoring HBM and CoWoS capacity bottlenecks, could ship 210 ten-thousand units by the end of 2026, while the training chip MediaTek designs is progressing more slowly, may not provide samples within 2026, and would deliver by the second quarter of 2027 at the latest. The speaker treats this as one of Taiwan stocks' three classic worries, "order loss, delay, order transfer"; it is a real issue, but it was always going to come out only next year. MediaTek has risen from 3000 to a high of 5500, a gain of more than 70–80%, so a rest is reasonable; at most it should pull back to the monthly moving average, not all the way to the quarterly one, because if TSMC or Largan takes over the rally, it doesn't need to fall that much.
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10:40AUO Large-Holder Holdings and Buying Dips
MediaTek is a good stock; after this big run it was pushed down by vulture-like bad news that grabs any theme, and it can be bought again near the monthly moving average. As for AUO, last week versus the week before, large holders increased holdings by 6% while retail holders decreased, and the speaker thinks that 6% will not be dumped in a short time; he had wanted to wait for a pullback to the earlier red candlestick or the 10-day moving average before buying, but because volume is insufficient, speculative sentiment has cooled, and yields and oil prices are rising, he still leans toward quietly buying on dips. He says there are already rumors in the industry that AUO will sell a plant; if consolidation drags on for more than 2 weeks it counts as a second wave of advance, targeting about 30% upside, a target of about 40–50, which the speaker says is the common event-trading target price in the industry, for reference.
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13:25Estimating MediaTek's Support Level
If MediaTek drops through again with one more candlestick, it would head straight to the quarterly moving average and everyone trapped would be forced out, so the speaker thinks it will stop falling near the monthly moving average. The monthly moving average will rise sharply starting tomorrow and quickly reach 4700-something, so he estimates it will stop falling between the 10-day and monthly moving averages, at about 4700–4800, stressing this is only his personal view, for reference.
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14:30Sector Movers and the Systex Investor Conference
The strong groups on the market are mainly equipment stocks and Chenbro-like semiconductor-related names such as Apex International, along with quite a few small caps. The key point is that Systex will hold an investor conference on October 7, where the group president and the president of the automotive and mobile computing business unit will explain in person the AI data center and BBU progress, growth in industrial PCs and drones, and the follow-up for the Texas plant in the US; the speaker guesses quite a few people will attend the conference, and says the market may get in early now to wait in position.
▶ Watch from here16:35The BBU Theme and Small Surge Stocks
Shunda's moving averages are all below the stock price and it is ready to launch at any time, but the speaker says that every time in the past he hoped it would break away from its moving averages, it fell back to them; whether it breaks away this time depends on whether Systex can lift BBU-related stocks together. He also mentions 3543 Zhou Qiao, a small surge stock among low-priced shares that benefits from this year's big growth in AI servers; it has finished consolidating and is above all moving averages, and the approach is to defend the 5-day moving average: leave if it breaks below, follow if it holds above.
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20:10Reviewing Weak Stocks for Stop-Losses
Going through today's limit-down and big-decline stocks one by one: one has broken a key level, and the speaker says he would stop out, and already exited near cost last week; another has begun to swing at a high level, and if it doesn't open higher tomorrow, beware of trapped selling pressure overhead; Cang He is an energy-related small surge stock that pulled back after a big run, and needs to stabilize near the monthly moving average, otherwise wait for it to regain the monthly moving average before buying; KYEC pulled back after 4 straight days of gains, and the speaker expects it to stop falling at the 10-day moving average, around 280-something, otherwise the earlier gains would be wasted.
▶ Watch from here25:05Turnover Rankings and Sectors
Looking at the turnover rankings, UMC is still near the top, and the speaker jokes it's not dead yet; Dynamic Electronics is consolidating nicely on the 10-day moving average and its monthly moving average is about to catch up, and if it flattens out smoothly it would be remarkable. Because overall market turnover is not large enough, he saves his personal views for last. 3016 Episil's turnover surged, and the speaker points to silicon wafers as the direction to watch next.
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25:45Silicon Wafers and Chip-Flow Analysis
Episil is the strongest in the silicon wafer group this round, with holdings already cleaned out; as with passive components, look at the small-cap stocks first, not the large caps. On the flow side, the chip radar shows two large buyers and sellers: one sold many stocks last week and is still selling Yageo and ASE, so the packaging and testing group must wait until the selling is finished; the other added ABF last week, showing ABF still has potential, but stocks chased recently are easily trapped, so he does not recommend chasing near the prior high. If the Taiwan dollar gradually strengthens again, that is good for Taiwan stocks.
▶ Watch from here29:10Index Trimming Strategy and Volume
The weighted index has fallen below its 5-day moving average, and those heavily invested can trim 5% today, bringing their invested level below 85%; above the 5-day moving average, being fully invested is fine, but below it you should at least adjust. If the market dips slightly again tomorrow or touches the 10-day moving average, they may cut another 5%–7.5%, because it is near the prior high and nervous people tend to dump in reverse. The OTC index has failed twice at the prior high, and today volume shrank to 1680 hundred million; breaking the prior high requires heavy volume of more than 2500 hundred million; if it doesn't close higher tomorrow, the speaker will lower his invested level further and take profits on some stocks.
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30:35Stock Trading and Opening Reminders
Kingcore (Jin Ju) came out of disposition status today, but its pattern is not pretty enough; the speaker thinks it still has a chance to go up again, but if it rises he will first sell the added-on position, or at least sell half. For disposition stocks such as Xintec, Global Unichip and Visual Photonics, those who want to buy should buy on declines. He also reminds that this Monday is a market holiday, so only Tuesday to Thursday are open.
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