Read the News Objectively, Avoid Linear Thinking: CCL Price-Hike Rotation, and Caution on King Yuan Electronics and Nan Ya at High Levels
TL;DR: News should be read objectively without linear thinking, because the King Yuan Electronics–Nvidia cooperation news spread last week, and its US expansion will reach small-volume production in 2028 at the earliest and does not affect current operations; trades should rely on the quarterly line, monthly line and institutional flows for defense, with caution on high-level, heavy-volume stocks like Nan Ya.
Key ideas
- Bullish or bearish news cannot be read linearly: the King Yuan Electronics–Nvidia cooperation news was already worn out last week, so some people taking profit is normal, but small-volume production comes in 2028 at the earliest and does not affect current operations; the old-light versus new-light narrative was also overturned within a day, so you cannot judge by just 1–2 days of performance.
- Capital rotates in order: after major CCL makers announced price hikes, the market first thought of upstream glass fiber cloth and copper foil, and Nan Ya, Taiwan Glass and Fuchiao moved first; if copper foil also starts moving, it means PCB is rotating once more from upstream to downstream, and since capital is limited, names already pushed up only need to hold their defense points.
- While the bull trend is not broken, any strong stock pulling back to the quarterly line should be viewed on the buy side, not shorted; for those who want a stop-loss, the low near the monthly line on October 8, around 284, can serve as a reference for King Yuan Electronics, and Largan is leaning bullish near the quarterly line and the September low.
- Foreign investors, investment trusts and margin traders are all buying Nan Ya, and the author has already taken partial profits above 300; but with oversized turnover, heavy volume at a high level and hand-changing, 350 already exceeds the target price in most reports, so step aside if intraday action looks wrong and don't let profits vanish.
- Moving averages are discipline: the quarterly line is a polite bounce, the monthly line is respectful support; short-term traders leave when a line breaks and keep stop-losses very small, and a break that doesn't hold and then turns back up is the favorite pattern; the holding level stays at about 70%-plus, and the author doesn't want to add much until the Taiwan dollar rebounds.
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Section summaries
0:05Opening Recap and the CCL Price-Hike Theme
The opening continues the previous day's view: don't worry about PCB, it rose today; old-light stocks also rose, yet Ability Opto-Electronics fell limit-down. It then explains that after major CCL makers announced price hikes, the market naturally thought of upstream copper foil and glass fiber cloth, and stocks such as Nan Ya, Taiwan Glass and Fuchiao did well today; passive components, resting after their rise, can also be watched again.
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3:15Murata's Expansion and Taiwan Makers' High-End Positioning
Murata is expanding MLCC capacity and investing early, but it targets high-end AI and does not compete for Yageo's mid-range market, so it is not bearish for Taiwan; Taiwanese makers can expand into the high end, just as TSMC leaves mature processes to UMC and Vanguard, which makes Taiwan stocks stronger.
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4:45Reading News Objectively and the Old-Light/New-Light Definition
A reminder to read bullish and bearish news objectively and avoid linear thinking. New light refers to Largan, Ability Opto-Electronics and other groups recently rumored to be mass-producing optical communications, but today all the old-light stocks rose while Ability fell limit-down, so the old/new split is unreliable. Using PCB as an example: Gold Circuit Electronics rose hard today but its position is not yet too high, while ABF rose very hard two weeks ago and is now resting, so you cannot judge by just 1–2 days of performance.
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6:25Support Levels for King Yuan Electronics and Largan
The news of King Yuan Electronics' cooperation with Nvidia was already worn out in investment circles last week, so some people taking profit is normal; its US expansion reaches small-volume production in 2028 at the earliest, does not affect current operations, and does not mean the fundamentals are worsening. For those who want a stop-loss, the low near the monthly line on October 8, 284, can be a reference, while watching whether foreign investors keep buying and whether margin traders are only trimming slightly. For Largan, when it fell near the quarterly line and the September low, Boss Lei actually leaned bullish, saying that it should have broken yesterday but didn't and returned today, which shows many people are willing to buy.
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10:05Sector Rotation Order and Nan Ya's Target Price
Today Nan Ya, Taiwan Glass, Fuchiao and Gold Circuit Electronics continued the CCL price-hike theme, while copper foil has not moved yet; if copper foil also starts moving, it means PCB is rotating once more from upstream to downstream, and sector rotation has an order. Capital is focused on Taiwan Glass, Nan Ya and Fuchiao; Taiwan Glass and Fuchiao have good fundamentals and clear defense points; foreign investors, investment trusts and margin traders are all buying Nan Ya, the original target was above 300, partial profits were taken above 300, and 350 would be very satisfying.
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16:15Gold Circuit Electronics Flows and Research Team Fundamentals
Gold Circuit Electronics must hold its five-day line; the investment trust keeps buying and foreign investors are returning, and one more day of consecutive buying would look even better; at the high level there is a group of trapped holders who just lie flat, and how they react when the price returns to that area is the thing to watch. The author's cost is low, with profits of about 30–40% across two stages, so there's no need to guess whether it is too high, and he shows the fundamentals data compiled by the research team for each stock.
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18:25Limit-Up Radar and Principles for Strong Stocks
On the limit-up radar, Radiant Opto-Electronics shows continuity, and another stock gapped up to limit-up after consecutive black candles, meaning selling pressure has been exhausted. The old saying again: while the bull trend is not broken, any strong stock pulling back to the quarterly line should be viewed on the buy side and bullishly, don't try to short it, and you can wait for it to stabilize. Because Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology had heavy volume with a long upper shadow and a black close the previous day, the author sold after gaining 20-odd %; he also rarely bottom-fishes and prefers stable stocks whose moving averages are turning up.
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24:25Ability Opto-Electronics Flows and Outlook for Old/New Light
Ability Opto-Electronics has no old-light/new-light problem; the key is that foreign investors and the investment trust don't turn tonight; although margin traders sold quietly at limit-up, it did not affect the price, so institutional flows are what matter. Volume today was more than ten thousand lots and it did not close locked at limit-up, and with old light still rising, new light won't die too ugly; after 2–3 days of consolidation it can still make another push, and some people also bought Ability warrants, showing that some agree with this view.
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28:35Nan Ya's Showdown and High-Level Heavy-Volume Caution
Nan Ya ranks first in the whole market by turnover, and the author uses the tone of Long Wu from God of Gamblers as an analogy: tomorrow is the showdown, you can only charge forward, not turn back. Gold Circuit Electronics' turnover jumped to 7th, and Wiwynn, after long consolidation, produced volume today. But Nan Ya's turnover is too large, and heavy volume with hand-changing at a high level starts to get messy; stepping aside if intraday action looks wrong is fine, because 350 already exceeds the target price in most reports on the market, so stay cautious and don't let profits vanish.
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34:35Moving Average Discipline and Holding Level Control
Boss Lei says the quarterly line is a polite bounce and the monthly line is respectful support; taking AUO as an example, short-term traders cannot let this candle break, and if it breaks they leave, with a very small stop-loss (about 1–2%) there is almost no loss. If it breaks without holding, then pulls back and turns up, that is a pattern he likes even more, and it can give another chance to buy back. The holding level stays at about 70%-plus, on the conservative side: the level was already cut over the previous two weeks, and recently he at most sells one stock to buy another; the Taiwan dollar is still depreciating, and before it rebounds he doesn't want to risk adding much, while the market is also waiting for TSMC's earnings call.
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