Chip-Flow Trading Show (哥有籌必爆)
EBC Money Show (理財達人秀) · Chip-Flow Trading Show: key points of every episode on reading institutional and broker-branch flows, so you can follow the ideas without watching the video.
All episodes (newest first)
Two Types of "Goodbye Stocks": Using Key Broker Branches and Major Player Flows to Decide Whether to Hold or Leave
A stock where major players or key broker branches are buying at a low price is a good goodbye worth watching, while one where major players and key branches are selling heavily at a high price is a bad goodbye to exit quickly, because in past cases the former mostly saw a rally afterward and the latter mostly dropped sharply.
Beaten-Down Stocks: Rebound Trading on Heavy Volume at the Lows, Extreme Negative Deviation and a Staged SOP
A beaten-down stock does not automatically rebound; it is only worth a rebound trade once it shows heavy volume at the lows (volume at least 2 times its 20-day average), because that means selling pressure is exhausted and someone is absorbing shares, but the rebound usually lasts only 2 days, so take it and get out.
Major Player Distribution Signals at Highs and Shorting Wrong-Way Stocks
When major players keep selling, retail investors take over and the number of shareholders in custody records jumps, shares are moving from big holders to retail; such stocks that are wrong at the highs can be shorted in small size to hedge long-position risk, but a stop-loss is required and any new high means removing the stock from the list.
Ex-Dividend Plays: Using Warrants and Futures to Capture the Ex-Dividend Gap-Up
Stocks tend to open higher on ex-dividend day, so pick stocks with high dividend yields, a large markdown and good chip flows, and take part through warrants or futures, selling on the gap-up; this avoids the dividend tax burden of holding the stock and skips whatever happens afterward.
High-Turnover Momentum Stocks: Using Position and Major-Player Buying and Selling to Spot a Breakout or Distribution
High turnover is neither good nor bad in itself; what matters is where it appears: a volume surge after a long low-level base with major-player net buying signals a swing move starting, while a spike at a high level with major-player net selling is a warning of distribution.
Warrant Whales' Overnight Flips: Reading Selling Pressure from the Net Buy/Sell Rankings
Warrant whales mostly trade for just one day, so warrants they buy today turn into selling pressure the next day; stocks at the top of the warrant net-buy ranking should be sold first thing in the morning rather than chased at 9 a.m., and the net-sell names deserve attention instead.
Reading Bullish and Bearish Signals in Major Shareholder Share-Transfer Filings
Whether an insider share-transfer filing is bullish or bearish depends on its form and the price level: gifts, trusts or placements with a specific buyer at low levels lean bullish, while ordinary intraday trades at high levels lean bearish, and in a bull market the hit is only short-term, becoming much more damaging once the market weakens.
Following the Big Players with Key Broker Branches: 3 Criteria of Big Buying at Lows, Fat Profits, and Heavy Selling at Highs
To find a key broker branch, look for 3 criteria: it buys big at lows, its average buy and sell prices differ by at least 20%, and it sells heavily at highs; pair low-level entries with high dividend yields, because a price where a branch buys big is usually not far from the bottom, and a high yield helps you hold through declines.
Betting on Volatility with Small Money in Warrants: Earnings-Call Timing and a Five-Phrase Checklist for Picking Warrants
Small-money warrant traders should target stocks likely to swing hard around earnings calls and pick warrants with a five-phrase checklist: big-swinging underlying, small and stable implied volatility, tight bid-ask spread, ample bid size, high leverage. Gains and losses are asymmetric in the buyer's favor, but warrants with too little leverage or too-high implied volatility only lose money.
Convertible Bond Breakout Stocks: The 5-Step Formula of Pull, Pump, Hype, Burst, Convert
Companies that issue convertible bonds mostly don't want to repay them and would rather lift the share price so bondholders convert into stock, so the 5 steps of pull, pump, hype, burst and convert can help judge when a stock will take off after issuance, with entry prepared at the first limit-up that signals intent.
Mini and Micro Futures for Beginners: Using Leverage with Small Capital in Day and Night Sessions
When inflation and rate hikes shrink your capital, small investors can use mini futures and overseas micro futures to position flexibly with lower margin, but the risk is leverage, so control position size, don't put in too much margin, and cut the loss decisively if you get a margin call.
Hedging with Inverse ETFs: Pros, Cons, Rollover Costs and Foreign Whale Moves
Shorting individual stocks carries unlimited risk, while an inverse ETF can at most go to zero, needs no margin top-ups and no manual rolling, which suits short-term hedging; but the futures rollover cost built into it keeps eroding value, so it should not be held long term.
Using Single-Stock Futures for Dividend-Style Investing: Leverage Control, Stock Selection and Ex-Dividend Tool Comparison
Single-stock futures can be used for dividend-style investing if you keep leverage at about 2x, hold half your capital in reserve, and pick stocks that have single-stock futures, high dividend yields and stable price swings, which lets you withdraw profits and receive the full dividend on the ex-dividend day.
Forced Short Covering: Using Covering Pressure to Pick Short-Squeeze Candidates
Forced covering of short positions happens twice a year, and you can pick squeeze candidates by covering pressure (short interest as a share of the 5-day average volume, with 50% or more counted as high), but exclude stocks with convertible-bond arbitrage, and take profits on longs early because the final covering day is not necessarily the biggest rally.
Chip-Flow Stock Picking: Whales and Major Players Up, Retail and Margin Down
Pick stocks by the "two ups, two downs": whale holdings and major-player net buying should rise while retail holdings and margin financing recede, because chip flows move ahead of price, and rebounds in stocks with deteriorating chip flows are mostly escape waves.
Director and Supervisor Election Rallies: Judging 1–2 Month Swing Trades from Holdings, Broker Branches and Consecutive Major-Player Buying
Director and supervisor election rallies are 1–2 month swing trades: pick companies where directors and supervisors hold few shares and the price-to-book ratio is low, confirm the rally exists through consecutive major-player net buying, and exit before the share-transfer suspension date.
A Beginner's Guide to Short Selling: Eligibility, Costs, Risks and Conditions for Shorting at the Top
Short selling should rest on logic, not emotion: consider it only when a stock is more than 30% above its yearly moving average, major players are selling heavily, retail is buying heavily and the stock has made no new high for a month, and first understand limits such as the 90% margin requirement, forced covering and margin calls, because losses on short selling can be scarier than on margin buying.
Convertible Bonds Basics: Dual Stock-and-Bond Traits, the Issuance Hype Playbook, and Reading a Company's Intent
Convertible bonds combine principal protection of a bond with a chance to convert into shares, and most companies issue them hoping to repay with stock rather than cash, so they often issue at a low price and then pump the stock; the conversion price and the bond's market price reveal their intent, which can be paired with short-term major-player net buying.
Reading Margin Financing: Is Retail Money Truly Washed Out?
Rising margin financing only shows that the individual investors borrowing to buy are bullish; the retail flow counts as washed out only when margin falls about 70% from its peak and falls by more than the share price does, and cyclical stocks often need 2-3 years, so falling margin does not mean you can buy right away.
Using Key Broker Branches to Find Major-Player Entry Points: A Screening SOP Based on Catcher and Winbond
Key broker branches are large-position branches that sell heavily at highs, buy heavily at lows and have a long record of profit; enter when the major players start buying big and exit when they turn to selling, because they accumulate slowly and dump fast.
How to Pick Short-Squeeze Stocks: 3 Conditions, the Short-to-Margin Ratio, and Telling Squeezes from Real Shorts
Short selling has capped profit and unlimited risk, so rather than get squeezed, find squeeze candidates with 3 conditions (riding the upper Bollinger band, major players buying in waves, and margin and short interest rising together with a high short-to-margin ratio) and tell them apart from true short candidates, where major players sell heavily at highs and short interest jumps.
Local Key Broker Branches: A 4-Step SOP to Find Central and Southern Taiwan Big Players
Broker branches near a company often buy heavily at lows and sell first at highs, and statistically beat foreign investors, so a 4-step SOP for finding key local branches in central and southern Taiwan captures low-level positioning better than reading the news.
Reading Pre-Open Simulated Matching: Spotting Bull Traps and Distribution Using Major Player Flows, Order Cancellations and the Futures Spread
Pre-open simulated matching does not equal the actual opening, so it must be judged together with major player flows, whether the price holds until the last moment, the real volume after orders are pulled, and the futures-spot spread, in order to tell a genuine limit-up from a bull-trap fake-out.
Dragon Boat Festival Turning Point Check and Index Futures Hedging: Biotech & Medical and Taiwan Sustainability
The Dragon Boat Festival turning-point statistics mean little; what to watch is how TSMC performs after the holiday and divergences in flows in strong stocks, and shareholders can hedge with the Biotech & Medical and Taiwan Sustainability index futures launching on June 8, turning big swings into small gains or losses.
Playing Ex-Dividend with Single-Stock Futures: A Creative Example, Selection Criteria and Historical Gap-Up Stats
Joining ex-dividend plays through single-stock futures means the dividend is credited on the day itself, tax-free, with low trading costs; combined with a 5-day major-player concentration above 5% and a high historical gap-up probability, profit can be over 5 times that of holding the shares, but the risk is large and capital must be controlled.
Short-Term Strong Stocks via Short-to-Margin Ratio and Major-Player Buying, Plus a Buy-and-Hold Approach to Staples and Recovery Stocks
For the short term, screen for strong stocks using a high short-to-margin ratio plus major-player buying; for the long term, pick high-gross-margin consumer-staple companies with moats, because the former relies on a short squeeze driven by chip flows while the latter is unafraid of the pandemic and benefits from a recovering economy.
Ex-Dividend Playbook: Hold High Fill-Rate Stocks Long Term, Trade the 3 Days Before Ex-Dividend Short Term
For ex-dividend plays, long-term investors should hold stocks with high yields and a high chance of filling the dividend gap, while short-term traders should only play the 3 days before ex-dividend to chase turnover, because dealers buy heavily before the ex-dividend date to hedge warrants they issued and sell heavily on the day, so the move is concentrated up front.
Following Investment Trusts: Using the Trust-to-Volume Ratio to Find Low-Priced Stocks They Have Adopted
To pick stocks adopted by investment trusts, look for a trust net buy/sell as a share of trading volume (trust-to-volume ratio) of 10% or more, for 2 or more consecutive days, with the share price still low, because a ranking by lot count alone misses high-priced stocks and a share-of-capital ratio distorts results for large-capital companies.
Negative Oil Prices and Chip Flows: Why Local Mid-Size Investors Beat Trend-Chasing Foreign Funds
Negative oil prices reflect collapsing global demand, so crude-oil products are best watched from the sidelines, while in Taiwan stock flows local mid-size investors have long beaten trend-chasing foreign investors, so follow the mid-size investors rather than foreign funds.
Can You Follow Share Buybacks? How to Tell the 3 Types Apart and Screen Them
Only the first type of buyback is worth following: one launched at a low price, with major players buying in step and a record of doing what it says. Buybacks launched at highs are major players using the cover to sell out, and the fizzling type only yields a short-term gain during the buyback window.
Avoid the Crowded Places: Reading Whale and Retail Holding Changes to Time Trades
To find good stocks, stay away from where retail investors crowd and watch how large holders' and retail holders' stakes change: a 3% increase by whales is a buy signal, while whales falling, retail rising and a high-level share-transfer filing is a short signal, because company insiders know the business better than retail does.
Granville's Eight Rules, Xiaoge Edition: Telling a Rebound from a Recovery, Combined with Major Player Flows and Volume
Granville's eight rules are only reliable when combined with major players' net buying/selling and trading volume, because the monthly moving average's direction decides whether it is a rebound to grab and run from quickly or a recovery you can add to and hold for a swing, and relying on moving-average buy points alone may mean buying right where major players are unloading.
Shorting with Put Warrants: Advantages and 4 Entry Signals
Put warrants are the best short-selling tool for small-capital investors because they carry no borrowing-fee risk, no forced buy-back, and a maximum loss of zero; enter only when signals appear, such as wide Bollinger Bands touching the upper band, major players on the sell side, negative news, and key broker branches selling first.
Short-Term Warrant Trading: Avoid Range-Bound Stocks, Catch Earnings-Call Rallies
Warrants lose time value every day, so they are not for holding long; pick high-volatility stocks and trade short term ahead of known events like earnings calls, accepting limited losses for a bigger profit potential.
Warrants for Beginners: In-the-Money vs. Out-of-the-Money, How to Pick, and Trading Short-Term
Warrants are highly leveraged but lose time value continuously, so trade them in and out quickly and pick them by 3 criteria: low spread-to-leverage ratio, leaning in-the-money, and a stable issuer; held too long, 47% of the more than 2 wan (ten-thousand) warrants are already down more than half from their issue price.
Using Bollinger Band Width and Slope to Pick Stocks, Then Confirming Entries and Exits with Major-Player Net Buying and Selling
Check Bollinger Band width first (upper band divided by lower band, minus 1): chase only when the width is narrow and the upper band tilts up 1% or more, and sell once price leaves the upper band; when the width is wide, let major-player net buying or selling decide between going long at the lower band or shorting at the upper band.
Predicting Moving-Average Direction with Dropout Values, Then Timing Trades with Major-Player Net Buying and Selling
A moving average's direction can be worked out in advance from its dropout value, but this only improves the win rate by about 10%, so it must be combined with major-player net buying/selling and whether the price is high or low, to avoid the trap of major players unloading shares on good news.
How to Trade, and Escape, a Rebound After a Sharp Selloff, and What to Do If You're Trapped
A high-volume rebound after a sharp drop is a chance to escape and cut risk, and the only sign of a bottom is trading volume; buying floor stocks that crashed on heavy volume shrinks losses, whereas averaging down or doing nothing does not.
Only 3 Single Candlesticks Matter: The Bald Big Red Candle, the Buyout Gap-Up Flat Line, and the High-Level Hanging Man
Of the 48 candlestick types, only 3 are worth watching: the bald big red candle, the gap-up flat line, and the high-level hanging man. Some common candles such as the doji are not statistically significant, while these 3 help catch a breakout chase, a buyout limit-up order, and a high-level reversal exit.